SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 6/13-16 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 40 (46)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52 (50)
(MoE: ±4%)
The June survey may have reflected a bit of a post-primary bounce for Lunsford, who hasn’t really been able to land any solid blows on Mitch McConnell since then. All things considered, Lunsford isn’t that far behind the heavily entrenched McConnell, and there’s still plenty of time left on the clock for this one to get interesting.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
UPDATE: We get emails. Despite Kentucky having a Democratic voter registration advantage of 57D-33R-9I (the same breakdown of SUSA’s June poll), this time SUSA pegs the electorate at 50D-39R-9I. If you adjust the numbers back to the June breakdown, the gap closes to five points. I’m not so sure that we should place much faith in such a method, but it is true that most (if not all) of SUSA’s Kentucky polls from 2007 pegged Democrats at least a few points higher than 50% of the electorate.
(H/T: conspiracy)
VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, MS, OR, MN, ME, NC, in that order. Kentucky moves into the same category as GA, TX, KS, OK, ID. Not totally out of the question but unlikely.